As per the Energy Storage Association, the average lifespan of a lithium-ion battery storage system can be around 10 to 15 years. The ROI is thus a long-term consideration, with break-even points varying greatly based on usage patterns, local energy prices, and available incentives.
The cost of battery storage systems has been declining significantly over the past decade. By the beginning of 2023 the price of lithium-ion batteries, which are widely used in energy storage, had fallen by about 89% since 2010.
According to some projections, by 2030, the cost of lithium-ion batteries could decrease by an additional 30–40%, driven by technological advancements and increased production. This trend is expected to open up new markets and applications for battery storage, further driving economic viability.
Battery storage costs have evolved rapidly over the past several years, necessitating an update to storage cost projections used in long-term planning models and other activities. This work documents the development of these projections, which are based on recent publications of storage costs.
Figure ES-2 shows the overall capital cost for a 4-hour battery system based on those projections, with storage costs of $245/kWh, $326/kWh, and $403/kWh in 2030 and $159/kWh, $226/kWh, and $348/kWh in 2050.
Available cost data and projections for distributed battery storage are very limited. Therefore, the battery cost and performance projections in the 2022 ATB are based on the same literature review as the utility-scale and residential battery cost projections.
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